As the strategic planner bogs is mind with trying to predict the
future performance of some available variable qualitatively, at the mercy of
human limitations and time constraint.
COMPUTERIZED FORECASTING TECHINIQUES comes not only to increase his speed of
operation but to save him the trouble of determining which method to use and if
so applied assures of reliability of such forecast.
features of this package include
1. Ability to choose from the
various quantitative forecasting techniques.
2. Ability to select the
method by menus.
3. finally a help path, which
includes documentation on the software loading the Pascal computer.
TABLE OF CONTENT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.1 OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEMS
1.3 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
1.4 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
1.5 SCOPE OF STUDY
1.7 DEFINITION OF TERMS
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
2.0 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
2.1 QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES
2.1.1 N-PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE
SQUARE REGRESSION METHOD
2.2 QUANTITATIVE FORCASTING TECHNIQUES.
OF EXECUTIVE OPINION
DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM.
3.1 FACTS FINDING AND METHOD USED.
3.2 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
3.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM
3.4 INPUT, PROCESS, AND OUTPUT ANALYSIS
3.5 INPUT ANALYSIS
3.6 OUTPUT ANALYSIS
3.7 INFORMATION FLOW DIAGRAM.
3.8 PROBLEMS OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM.
3.9 JUSTIFICATION OF THE NEW SYSTEM.
DESIGN OF THE NEW SYSTEM.
4.1 OUTPUT SPECIFICATION AND DESIGN
4.2 INPUT SPECIFICATIONS AND DESIGN
4.3 FILE DESIGN
4.4 PROCEDURE CHART
4.5 SYSTEM FLOWCHART
4.6 SYSTEM REQUIREMENT.
5.1 PROGRAM DESIGN
5.2 PROGRAM FLOWCHART
5.4 SOURCE PROGRAM
5.5 TEST RUN
5.6 SYSTEM CHANGEOVER
6.1 SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION
6.2 PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION
6.3 USER DOCUMENTATION
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION.
1.1 OVERVIEW OF FORCASTING TECHNIQUES.
the time life started, till now, man ahs sought to forecast the future. Things
that happened before are used to justify what will take place in the future.
Most of the times, it becomes true while at other time it facts. The ability to
forecast the consequence of actions and events is one of the defining
properties of the mind.
business situation, it is necessary to be able to make some predictions about
the future in order to make some predictions about the future in order to plan
the business operations well-Arriving at such an climate of the future is the
purpose of the process of forecasting.
service sector, a forecast of demand for the service being offered is necessary
to determine the number of staff that will be sufficient enough for the
business and the quantity of raw materials to be bought.
retailing sectors, forecast of sales will be needed to decide staffing levels
and also to determine what qualifies of stock should be purchased. Excessive
levels of stock tie up working capital and storage space, further expenses can
be incurred through such process as theft, insurance and possibly,
deterioration. On the other head, inadequate re-order quantities such as high,
ordering cost and the inability to meet customers demand.
is simply the scientific name for guessing, what the will bring. There are
several standard techniques available for forecasting and each techniques has
it’s own assumption, benefits and pitfall.
project is concerned with the evaluation of the different forecasting
techniques used by Anammco Ltd Emene, Enugu to determine how to manage their
the following problems.
Problems 1: A sales manager collects together records of the past
sales for particular product how does he find a forecasting techniques that
gives good forecasts for this data?
A member of his staff suggests that a particular method of forecasting. How
does the sales manager test this method of forecasting to see if it can yield
to find answers to questions such as these is obliviously basic to the whole
exercise of practical forecasting. It is necessary for me to know which
forecasting techniques is best for any particular problems.
1.2 STATEMENT OF
investigation done revealed that workers manually do the record keeping for
manual system is outdated in terms of speed of processing and accuracy. This
results into wastage of time and in efficiency in productions.
inefficiencies call for the computerization of the operations of the forecast.
1.3 Purpose of study.
of this research is to present the different forecasting techniques used by
Anammco ltd in manufacturing their cars. It is however to make analysis
based in definite statistical data, which will enable an executive to take
advantage of future condition to a greater extent than he could do without them.
1.4 Aims and objectives.
objective include the following.
A. To help the managers and all those
interacted in obtaining forecast for practical purposes to be able to make
decision on which forecasting techniques to use at different situation.
B. To demonstrate the different
methods which Anammco uses in their business forecast.
C. To point out that all forecast
used by Anammco have errors and that the measurement of the errors is critical.
D. To help the managers and
forecasters to know the internal values of forecalls and the degree of
confidence they need to have in the forecast.
1.5 SCOPE OF STUDY.
project uses the simple linear repression analysis that concerns itself with
just one explanatory variable and a linear form of relationship. The
explanatory variable could be time of periods.
forecasting methods are the exponential smoothing and the moving average
methods, which are used, should a time series observation exhibits a trend.
This exhibition of trend can be verified with a scatter diagram of the
observation against observed points.
can be made from such models built using methods above after analysis by
the software such forecast most likely will be in the short to medium term
though appear complex is simplified as will be seen in the user friendly
user interfaces. The complex or the multi-variable regression analysis was
avoided in this project as well as the logarithm exponential smoothing for the
purpose of the project.
TERMS AND CONDITIONS APPLY
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